The dispute between Evo Morales and Luis Arce in Bolivia will worsen until the 2025 election
Aldo Anfossi
Correspondent
The newspaper La Jornada
Thursday, September 26, 2024, p. 32
Santiago. The recent march led by Evo Morales from the Bolivian highlands to the doors of the Casa Grande del Pueblo, the seat of government in La Paz, is just one more chapter, and another of the many that remain, in the odious political and personal dispute between the former president and President Luis Arce Catacora.
Bolivia will hold general elections in August 2025 and at the heart of the confrontation between the two figures is who will carry the presidential candidacy of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), in addition to the ideological differences that have been evident. So as the electoral calendar advances and this is not resolved, it is foreseeable that the confrontation will continue to become more bitter.
The march and its outcome have been a kind of test of strength, from which both parties come out winning, according to what political scientist Susana Bejarano says, in a telephone conversation with The Day from La Paz.
The march highlights situations that, from an external perspective, seem to mean nothing, but which are relevant: an absolutely important demonstration of force that demolishes myths; and on the other hand, the power of institutions and democracy that respect Arce’s mandate, and that the president has enough prudence not to fall into temptations that would have led to a much more complicated scenario, whether it be the arrest of Morales or the excessive use of public force, whose use has been intelligent in avoiding high levels of violence.he summarizes.
The success of having reached La Paz allowed Morales to show his strength –This is a confrontation within the MAS whose base is 35 percent of the vote and as in all political action the bases must be secured.–, which It is no small thing because there was the idea that after 2019 (when he resigned from the presidency) he would not be able to return to El Alto (where there were then dozens of deaths during the military repression that followed his fall) and that in La Paz he would receive immediate repudiation; both things are false; so in the MAS, which was what mattered to him, I think he is making progress..
As for the government, On the surface he looks weaker, but he can also be seen as prudent: he did not fall into the temptation that the opposition and strong voices of the arcismo asked him to arrest Morales; it is this prudence that makes the scenario not one of the announced violence.says.
So, “Arce has the power of democracy, which means that there is no impulse – despite the crisis – to break away from the government in Bolivia. The majority of Bolivians, 70 percent, believe that Arce should complete his term.”
In short, Evo achieved the objective of reaching La Paz and although he called for the dismissal of ministers under penalty of overthrowing the government, That’s not going to happen, it’s dissipated that it could bring down the government.
But the underlying issue in dispute – the leadership of the MAS in 2025 – will continue to drag on and This is the first moment of a battle that will have many more..
Decisions are pending from the electoral and constitutional courts about what counts more: the human right to run as many times as one wants or a ruling that prevents indefinite re-election.
A rough moment to be expected will be the legal dispute over the MAS acronym; another, whether or not to register Morales’ candidacy, a decision that is up to the electoral court, although there should be a consultation with the constitutional court. It is a time of great conflict.
It is also uncertain whether Arce will seek re-election under the MAS or another banner.
