Aldo Anfossi
Correspondent
The newspaper La Jornada
Sunday, August 11, 2024, p. 19
Santiago. A month and a half after a military uprising, Bolivian President Luis Arce announced this week a referendum to settle three issues that are punishing his government and that the political system has not resolved, in an attempt to make the 15 months remaining in his term viable.
Through a plebiscite, Arce decided to settle the issue of presidential reelection – a focus of endless struggle with his former ally, former President Evo Morales – the distribution of the 130 seats according to the population of each state, and the fuel subsidy, which costs the treasury 2 billion dollars annually.
The consultation has not yet been scheduled and the exact wording of the three questions to be asked, which must first undergo constitutional review, is unknown.
And since the coup attempt on June 28, things seem to have gotten worse in Bolivia: a devaluation de facto of 100 percent of the local currency, making the dollar more expensive from eight to 15 Bolivian pesos, increases fuel shortages due to delays in imports.
Inflation, speculation, shortages, protests, roadblocks and social discontent are a perfect stormhe says from La Paz, in dialogue with The Daypolitical scientist Susana Bejarano, who adds that The referendum does not solve the structural crisis in the short or medium term.
Gasoline subsidies
Decide on fuel subsidies It will serve to see how established statist ideas are or how much a return to neoliberal recipes, which are in fashion in Bolivia, has been established; how firmly the economic model is in the minds of Bolivians, that question serves for that..
If the government decides not to, which I don’t think will happen, the poor will pay for this adjustment, since 67 percent of the diesel subsidy goes to the industry. This would imply price increases, but this way the government is not responsible, but the people. It is a political move, technical decisions that the voters should not assume..
Regarding indefinite re-election, It clearly refers to the internal struggle of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) and seeks to clarify the dispute between Arce and Morales, closes the legal battles and, eventually, ends Morales’ candidacy and forces him to think of a successor, which reconfigures the political scene and the internal war of the MAS..
Bejarano recalls that there is a constitutional ruling on this matter, preventing re-election for more than two periods, which needs to be endorsed by popular vote.
Legislative redistribution
The third question, about the redistribution of seats according to the 2024 census figures, is linked to the ongoing clash between the political centre in power of the MAS and the province of Santa Cruz, an opposition stronghold, whose population has increased.
Calculations indicate that Santa Cruz will gain four deputies, La Paz will lose one, Potosí will lose two and Chuquisaca will lose another.
From Santa Cruz there are doubts that holding a plebiscite on this issue is destined to lose what is constitutionally guaranteed.says.
The government has left the content of the referendum to public interpretation; no one has given an explanation of what exactly is going to be asked.
The president does not have the possibility that these questions have an impact on the Constitution, they cannot lead to constitutional reforms.explains the political scientist.
He also believes that Arce is seeking to oxygenate the political field by removing his archrival Evo from the board; the issue of seats is well done, without affecting Santa Cruz, and seeks to avoid entering into conflict with other departments. forcing Parliament to make a constitutional amendment to increase its membership from 130 to 134while the issue of fuel subsidies is to provide legitimacy to the productive model that has been undermined by the slowdown of the economy.
