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the decision of the Ukrainian government to Sending its troops into Russian territory – not yet recognised on the fourth day of fighting in the Kursk region, but which its authorities make clear, apart from the fact that it is evident from the magnitude of the troops and weapons involved: up to eight brigades of its army (each with between 4 and 5 thousand soldiers) of the 14 that took a year to form – is still a risky bet.
On the one hand, it is clear that this is not a quick and brief incursion by a small group of fighters and the success or failure of this operation will depend on whether they manage to stay in part of Russian territory, in a region that, due to miscalculations by the Russian military leadership, obsessed with reaching the goal set by President Vladimir Putin of release The entire administrative boundaries of Donetsk and Luhansk are among the least protected in the country, with detachments of border guards and inexperienced conscripts doing military service.
The attack was unexpected because of the tactics designed by the Ukrainian military command: first, a thousand soldiers broke in, then one or two brigades spread out in small groups with armoured vehicles and tanks in the towns of Sudzha and Korenevo districts, keeping under their control no less than 100 square kilometres and extending the fighting to an area of 661 square kilometres. And five or six more brigades are waiting their turn to enter.
To meet this challenge to the Kremlin’s image, the Russian Army General Staff has no reserves available and, while it is withdrawing reinforcements from the Donetsk front, it is resorting to aviation and artillery, while the Ukrainians are mining the accesses and creating fortifications – and using abandoned ones – in the towns of Kursk, which, as a collateral effect, run the risk of being reduced to ruins by Russian bombs and shells.
And on the other hand, regardless of whether or not Ukraine has the right to do the same thing that Russia did in February 2022, occupying a sector of the territory internationally recognized as part of Russia is the umpteenth escalation of a conflict that seems to have no end and that can give the Kremlin arguments to use its tactical nuclear arsenal, if it cannot expel Ukrainian troops beyond its border.
