Juan Pablo Duch: Post-Soviet Notes

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the visit of the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi’s visit to the Ukrainian capital yesterday came at a time when the prospect of starting negotiations to reach a political settlement of the armed conflict between two formerly brotherly Slavic peoples, the Russians and the Ukrainians, seems increasingly remote.

Especially since Volodymyr Zelensky’s government decided to take the war to Russian territory through the strategy of invading the Kursk region and striking with drones, increasingly farther from the border, in Russia’s rearguard.

The context of the visit, taking into account that the Russian army continues its slow but sustained offensive in the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk and Lugansk and that none of the parties involved is willing to make concessions for now, is not the most favorable for talking about peace.

This led Modi to say on the eve of his trip that India does not consider itself a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, although it is always ready to help end the bloodshed, convinced that war cannot be the solution for anyone.

Yet Modi’s presence in kyiv is significant as the first by a major leader from the so-called Global South – China’s Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Luis Inácio Lula da Silva have yet to meet Zelensky – and as a demonstration that India pursues an independent and pragmatic foreign policy that prioritizes protecting its national interests over criticism, much like Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who defies his North Atlantic alliance partners by helping Russia evade Western sanctions while selling arms to Ukraine.

Modi can either hug Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow or Zelensky in kyiv, as well as visit him the day before Ukraine’s independence is commemorated, but he would do neither if it did not benefit India: it is, along with China, a lucky buyer of discounted Russian crude and reinforces its moral leadership by proposing an end to hostilities.

Russian columnist Dmitry Drizé does not rule out the possibility that Russia could sell part of its Soviet weapons arsenal to a third country, and what the other country does with the weapons is no longer its business.