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In a few days, the president Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky will try to get the United States, his main supporter, to commit to supporting what he calls plan for victorywhich is not an initiative to negotiate a political settlement, nor is it Russia’s demand for Ukraine’s capitulation as a condition for accepting the end of the armed conflict.

Although he has not revealed the content of his plan, Zelensky seeks to increase pressure on the Kremlin in several ways, including military: it presupposes the delivery of more and better weapons. In this context, he needs the approval of Washington, London and Paris for the use of his long-range missiles to attack Russian territory (Germany did not authorize his rockets). Taurus).

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that such permission would mean that NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) would go directly to war with Russiaimplying that it is a red line that will not be allowed to be crossed, although it knows that the missiles Atacms (USA), Storm Shadow (Great Britain) and Scalp (France), in a version with a reduced range of 80 kilometers, are already being used against Russian territory and can fly at most between 300 ( Atacms) and 400 km ( Storm Shadow and Scalp). Moscow is 560 kilometers from the nearest point on Ukrainian territory. Ukraine’s obtaining such permission would not be critical, but it would force the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet, airfields and other military infrastructure more than 450 kilometers away.

Since it ordered the invasion of the neighbouring Slavic country, the Kremlin has watched impassively as Washington and its allies, although slow to decide, end up crossing the red lines it sets, as happened – here are several examples – with the delivery of anti-aircraft defence systems. Patriotthe rocket launchers Himarsthe missiles Atacmsthe tanks Leopard and Abramsthe fighter-bombers F-16 or the invasion of its own territory in Kursk.

Now, when the very existence of the Russian state is not at stake and allowing attacks at a maximum distance of 400 kilometres does not mean Russia’s military defeat, will the Kremlin resort to its nuclear arsenal, which could unleash a catastrophe? The answer seems clear, but each red line brings to mind the moral of the ancient joke “Here comes the wolf…” with a different ending: apocalyptic.