David Brooks and Jim Cason
Correspondents
The newspaper La Jornada
Friday, September 6, 2024, p. 27
New York and Washington., There are 60 days left until the November 5 election and, for now, there is a technical tie between the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, according to the polls, and the road to the White House is full of obstacles, lawsuits, corruption and threats of possible violence. In other words, the new normal since the tycoon’s arrival on the national scene nine years ago.
The fact that there is a technical tie is good news for the Democrats, who six weeks ago were losing the election against their then candidate, President Joe Biden, but at the same time, it is extraordinary that there could be a tie against a former president formally accused of interfering in an election – which some call an attempted coup d’état – in addition to facing formal accusations in another federal case for illicit handling of secret official documents (annulled by a judge appointed by Trump, but which is under appeal), and state cases where he has already been found guilty of corporate fraud, sexual abuse, and is fighting to stop another state case for electoral interference.
In the average of national surveys, calculated by The New York TimesHarris has a lead of 49 percent to Trump’s 46 percent.
However, this election, it bears repeating, is not something that will be decided at the national level, but the final outcome will be determined by only about six or seven states out of 50, and by a few hundred thousand votes or less there – that is, 6 percent of voters in six states may end up determining the national outcome, as reported by The Day (https://www.jornada.com.mx/2024/08/27/mundo/031n1mun).
According to some estimates, 0.03 percent of the national vote – 43,000 votes in Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona – were what gave Joe Biden the victory over Trump in 2020. In 2016, only 80,000 votes in key states tipped the balance in favor of Trump, reported The Guardian.
That is, because there is no direct vote to elect the president in this country, the process is actually 50 simultaneous state elections with the majority winner in each state winning all of that state’s Electoral College voters. Under that system, a candidate can win, and by a lot, the national vote, but lose the election.
Therefore, the final stretch focuses almost exclusively on those five to seven states. keys.
In polls, the Democrat has slim leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan and is tied in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. That’s good news, since Trump only days ago enjoyed slim leads in four of those states.
The tycoon, who continues to have to advance simultaneously as a presidential candidate and criminal defendant, declared, through his lawyers (he was not present), not guilty Thursday on amended charges in his federal criminal case alleging election interference in the 2020 race.
Essentially, the case was derailed by a ruling by the Supreme Court, whose conservative majority was achieved with Trump’s appointments during his presidency, declaring that as Executive on the dates the crimes were committed, he enjoyed almost of total immunity. The federal prosecutor in charge of the case amended the charges in an attempt to proceed with the lawsuit.
Towards an electoral crisis and republican excesses
Despite his busy schedule as a defendant in these proceedings, Trump and his party are preparing to trigger another electoral crisis by betting that the results will be very close in several key states and, as they did last time, by creating a legal conflict after the elections. They will also repeat accusations that migrants without the right to vote are part of the alleged fraud that is being prepared; all without evidence.
Democrats are also preparing for that dispute, hiring dozens of lawyers and organizing a unit dedicated to the voter protection.
In that case, the official conclusion of the elections could be delayed, and for a long time, and once again risk a constitutional crisis.
Not only that, but if Trump loses the election, there are constant predictions, even from anti-Trump Republicans, that the former president will do everything possible to sow chaos, and they do not rule out that he would call for a insurrection –an intention that he does not hide in his rallies where he continues to insist that he did not lose the election in 2020, although he does not present any evidence–.
In fact, to date, and as has been his custom, the Republican has refused to commit to respecting the results of the election this year, stating that if it is fair and legal and goodhe will do it – but he will be the judge of that. Moreover, in a recent interview he stated that had every right to interfere in that electionprecisely one of the crimes for which he is facing trial.
Harris, meanwhile, continues to focus on campaign events in key states and seeks to build on the momentum she had after the Democratic convention last month.
Meanwhile, in what promises to be the most expensive race by several billion dollars, the systemic corruption of the process is evident in the enormous power of a few multimillionaire donors to both parties and candidates, whose dollars obviously have much more influence on political positions than the votes of citizens (https://www.jornada.com.mx/2024/09/04/mundo/027n1mun).
The two candidates are scheduled to meet on September 10 for their first, and apparently only, debate, which will be broadcast live nationwide.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden’s youngest son, surprised prosecutors by proposing to plead guilty to tax misconduct and thereby avoid another trial, although the judge in charge of the case has not yet determined whether he will accept the proposal, which, if it does not go ahead, could result in Biden Jr. facing a possible prison sentence. The case, like another previous trial, no longer has the same political implications as it once had since his father withdrew from the electoral race.