Ap
La Jornada Newspaper
Wednesday, December 18, 2024, p. 24
Havana. The policy of strong pressure against Cuba, planned by the announced cabinet of the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, could be disastrous for both states, as former diplomats and experts from both countries warned on Monday.
In his first term, Trump already toughened sanctions against the island and his warnings of maintaining or deepening that policy could now hit the Cuban economy harder and generate greater immigration.
Destabilizing Cuba is certainly not in the interest (relative to national security) of the United States.Peter Kornbluh, director of documentation on Cuba at the National Security Archive at George Washington University, told a small group of journalists.
The appointment of the Cuban-American senator, Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State in the next Trump administration is one of the signs of what his policy towards the island would be, whose sanctions were dramatically reinforced in the Republican’s first term (2017-2021). . Rubio accused the island government of being a dictatorship and advocated restricting remittances, canceling trips, closing any type of business or binational rapprochement.
The increase in the more than 200 measures against the island that began with Trump and were maintained with his successor, is one of the most important causes of the current economic crisis in Cuba, which has already caused shortages, inflation, energy rationing and an migratory surge. in the last four years.
Kornbluh and about twenty specialists from both countries met in this capital this week to evaluate the 10 years that have passed since in December 2014, Presidents Barack Obama and Raúl Castro made an explosive announcement of rapprochement between both bitter rival countries throughout six decades.
It is in the interest of the United States to offer peaceful coexistence and normalize the policy that, as Obama believed, would have its own impact on the Cuban people’s ability to promote change for themselves.Kornbluh added.
The historic bilateral rapprochement between Obama and Castro in 2014 included the opening of embassies, the exchange of prisoners accused of espionage on both sides, the signing of 22 agreements on topics as varied as the environment or health; and even authorizing thousands of Americans to travel to the island, even encouraging a flourishing of private initiative in Cuba.
But the first arrival of Trump and his ultra-conservative advisors to the White House completely reversed this approach, toughening sanctions with the aim of achieving a radical change in the political model on the island by suffocating its economy.
His successor, Joe Biden, despite campaign promises, almost did not modify the sanctions and even left – as Trump had ruled – the island on a list of sponsors of terrorism that practically prevents foreign trade.
In 65 years, the moments in which the United States exerted the most economic pressure to have consequences within Cuba coincide with the so-called migratory crises.The former representative of the island in Washington, José Ramón Cabañas, another of the participants in the meeting, told the AP agency.
Cabañas was Cuba’s first ambassador to the United States from 2015 – after diplomatic normalization – until 2020, but he had already been head of mission in Washington since 2012, so his mandate coincided with the 18 months of secret talks between both countries that culminated with the relaunch of the links in 2014.
We expect that the US blockade will be tightenedThe political scientist from the American University of Washington, specialist in Cuba, Willam LeoGrande, commented at the meeting. He also considers that it is possible that Havana will not be a priority in the Trump administration, but migration will be.
Cuba is going through one of the worst economic crises in its history derived from the paralysis of the covid-19 pandemic, an internal financial reform that failed and the aforementioned tightening of United States sanctions.
As a consequence, a scenario of shortages, inflation and migration occurred. The United States border authorities reported that between October 2022 and September 2024 they had had encounters with some 641,000 Cubans and thousands more went to Latin America and Europe.
For its part, Cuba suffered damages of more than $5 billion between March 2023 and February 2024 due to United States sanctions, according to a report that the Cuban government delivered to the United Nations.