New Mexico is likely to see a wetter winter as a potentially strong El Niño develops in the Pacific that could become one of the strongest climate events in the past 1,000 years and among the strongest recorded since monitoring began in 1950.
A recent study published in the journal Science said the El Niño events over the past four decades have been more than one-third stronger than those recorded during the preindustrial era. The team of researchers led by Julia Cole at the University of Michigan has shown that El Niño varies in parallel with global warming and that current occurrences are less frequent than those over the past 1,000 years.
El Niño occurs when ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting weather patterns worldwide. Strong events often strengthen the subtropical jet stream, pushing storms into the southern U.S. and increasing the odds of wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of the Southwest.
This year’s El Niño is strengthening rapidly and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
James Belanger, vice president of meteorology at The Weather Company, said NOAA relies on long-term data to filter out short-term weather and ocean fluctuations, allowing the El Niño signal to stand out more clearly.
The climate pattern is expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with possible impacts on the Southwest becoming more noticeable between December and March. During that period, El Niño often shifts atmospheric circulation in ways that favor storms over the southern United States.
The impact, however, is not the same everywhere. The wet signal tends to be stronger south of I-40, while the northwest and far north-central regions tend to see less of an effect.
More rainfall could help restore water supplies
More mountain snowfall, including in the Sangre de Cristo Range, would help build snowpack and could provide valuable spring runoff, offering some relief to communities and water managers dealing with prolonged drought and strained river systems.
Snowmelt, especially after heavy snowfall, could increase flood risks in rivers, arroyos, and other low-lying areas. More frequent winter storms could bring a mix of rain and snow, with impacts varying by local temperature and elevation.
Temperature impacts are harder to predict because cloud cover and frequent storms can lead to cooler periods. Strong El Niño patterns also tend to reduce the number of severe Arctic cold outbreaks in some parts of the country.
Drought relief is possible, but far from guaranteed.
A wetter winter would likely help ease drought conditions in much of New Mexico and parts of the neighboring Southwest, but it would not solve the state’s longer-term water problems.
For example, next year’s water availability along the Rio Grande will depend on mountain snowpack, spring temperatures, evaporation rates, and how much water reaches rivers and reservoirs. Strong El Niño periods have often led to more favorable precipitation patterns in parts of the Southwest. The winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 brought substantial moisture to parts of the region, while the 2015-16 event produced more mixed results.
Past winters can provide useful comparisons, but they do not guarantee identical results. Various atmospheric and ocean conditions can influence storm tracks and the amount of rain or snow they bring.
The effects of the developing El Niño are likely to become clearer from late fall through winter and into early spring 2027. During that period, El Niño often alters atmospheric patterns and directs more storms toward the southern United States. That typically results in greater winter rainfall and mountain snowfall, especially in southern and central New Mexico.
