Voters on Tuesday delivered victories to former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, setting the stage for a closely watched gubernatorial race that could test the political direction of New Mexico, traditionally led by Democrats. But a third gubernatorial candidate may join them in the November general election.
Haaland, a Democrat and former Interior Secretary under the Biden administration, defeated Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in the Democratic primary. On the other side of the political aisle, Hull emerged from a three-way Republican primary contest. He defeated businessman Doug Turner and cannabis entrepreneur Duke Rodriguez.
The Tuesday results established a November face-off between two candidates with sharply contrasting visions for the state’s future. But the race may turn into a three-way contest.
Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima ran as an independent. He could qualify for the general election ballot if he can gather more than 14,000 valid signatures. If successful, the former mayor could be a wildcard in the gubernatorial race shaped by growing political tensions over crime, economic development, public education, and the state’s dependence on oil and gas revenue.
State Democrats looked at Haaland’s victory as a continuation of the party’s progressive wing. Haaland, a Native American who enjoys strong ties with Indigenous communities, is a former member of Congress and Interior Secretary under President Joe Biden. She entered the race with strong name recognition, a national fundraising network, and support among Democrats. Her candidacy brings her to the cusp of history as the first Native American to take the helm of the state as governor.
Her pathways to victory are not without challenges. Bregman, a prominent prosecutor, conceded the race Tuesday night. He declined, however, to endorse Haaland, which underscored the lingering divisions within the Democratic coalition. “I will not be supporting Deb Haaland, no,” Bregman said.
Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping Hull can translate voters’ concerns about crime, economic affordability, and government management into votes. Hull has built a reputation as a pragmatic local executive focused on development and municipal growth during his 12 years as mayor of Rio Rancho, one of the state’s fastest-growing cities. Hull’s track record as mayor, Republicans believe, could appeal to independents and moderate Democrats.
The possible entry of Miyagishima adds another layer of uncertainty. Miyagishima, as mayor of Las Cruces from 2007 to 2023, has cultivated a reputation as a centrist willing to work across party lines. His appeal could attract voters who are already dissatisfied with both major parties.
His potential entry to the November contest, if he qualifies for the ballot, could be pivotal. Although it is rare for independent candidates to win statewide contests, they can reshape electoral dynamics by drawing support from major voting blocs, forcing major-party candidates to broaden their appeal.
The November election will determine who will succeed Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. It will also offer state voters a choice between contrasting visions of New Mexico. Months of campaigning ahead and the possibility of a three-way contest looming can turn New Mexico’s gubernatorial contest into one of the most closely watched political battles in the American Southwest.