Volunteers spread across the Rio Grande bosque and the streets of downtown Albuquerque on an icy January morning, clipboards in hand, documenting the visible faces of a crisis that has deepened for two decades. The latest Point-in-Time counts, snapshots required by federal housing authorities, show New Mexico’s homelessness numbers have increased roughly 55 percent since the late 2000s, with sharp recent rises in Albuquerque and beyond.

Amid national debates over migration, busing programs, and the rise of “imported” homelessness in warmer climates, data from resource providers and researchers tell a different story. That the surge of homeless population is mainly a crisis born in New Mexico.

A Majority Stay Close to Home

According to a study by Root Policy Research, based on Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) data and Point-in-Time reports, “The majority of people experiencing homelessness within New Mexico came from communities (or Tribal areas) within the state of New Mexico or the Navajo Nation,” instead of arriving as unhoused migrants from other states.

Albuquerque, for instance, bears a disproportionate share of the state’s visible homelessness. A 2022 analysis found that about 21 percent — over 600 out of roughly 2,800 — had come from out of state. The number is significant, but still leaves the clear majority with local roots.

State health department data and hospital records draw an even larger picture, suggesting annual homelessness ranges from 15,000 to 30,000 people. The figure could be higher when those who cycle in and out of shelters, cars, families squeezed into shared housing, or stuck in unstable living situations are counted— far beyond the one-night PIT tallies.

“These findings bolster understanding of homelessness in New Mexico and demonstrate that statewide healthcare system data can be used to report homelessness and its comorbidities,” researchers Hayley Peterson and Dylan Pell pointed out.

Deep Local Roots, Stark Disparities

Native Americans are significantly disproportionate. They make up roughly 25 percent to 27 percent of the homeless residents in Albuquerque and across the rest of New Mexico, despite comprising a smaller segment of the general and impoverished population. Diné – Navajo comprise the largest tribal group among the unsheltered in Albuquerque (49.1 percent) and across the state (49.5 percent).

Poverty, chronic housing shortages, behavioral health challenges, substance use disorders, and the lasting impact of dispossession felt across Tribal communities contribute to the increasing numbers of the unsheltered. Many claim the local triggers push them onto paths toward homelessness. These triggers include the cost of rent, job loss in a tourism-and-extraction economy, family breakdown, or release from jails and hospitals lacking sufficient support.

PIT and HMIS data rely on self-reports and their engagement with services, creating a blind spot in the system. Some recent arrivals may evade the system. Stories circulate of people being drawn to New Mexico’s climate or perceived services. But researchers and providers consistently discover the prevailing pattern is homegrown — usually individuals slipping past community safety nets they used to live through.

Two Decades of Rising Homelessness

The uptick spans economic cycles. New Mexico’s lack of affordable rentals, especially for the lowest-income families, has deteriorated. Statewide estimates of people experiencing homelessness at some point in a year eclipse the single-night counts. In Albuquerque alone, data systems tracking shelter occupancy, outreach, and services show that thousands experience housing instability annually.

Recent PIT counts continue to show upward trend, even as cities nationwide struggle with post-pandemic surges. New Mexico’s challenges weigh heavily on long-term residents and Native populations, rather than a sudden influx.

Beyond the Counts

Advocates with the New Mexico Coalition to End Homelessness stress that snapshots miss the human story. In reality, families doubling up until they can’t, veterans grappling with untreated trauma, and individuals with chronic health issues spiraling after one medical bill too many.

The state reports discuss solutions, and strategy documents zero in on increasing permanent supportive housing, rental assistance, prevention programs, and community care rooted in cultural responsiveness. These investments seek to address the local dynamics driving the upward trend.

Volunteers tally another January count, and policymakers weigh in on budgets. But the data underscores a glaring truth for New Mexico: The homeless on its streets are, for the most part, its own.

To solve the uptick in homelessness, the state doesn’t have to rely largely on outside help, external resources, or solutions from without. It has to confront deep-seated shortages of housing, support systems, and opportunity within.